Handicapping Sports Weather (adventure sports)
No commentsBy Jerry Fox
PRO INFO SPORTS takes all factors into consideration when handicapping sports investment opportunities for our Sports Handicapping Services, including the weather. We also strongly recommend clients give the “elements” a final check for any late-breaking developments prior to wagering, by reviewing our Weather Reports.
Atmospheric conditions can have a big impact on sporting events. In perceived football “mismatches”, poor weather tends to lessen the advantage powerful teams have over weaker opponents. The underdogs’ chances of keeping the games close or even pulling off the outright upsets are enhanced, especially by turnovers which occur with more frequency in bad-weather games. Just the threat of poor conditions can act as a great equalizer. Teams become more offensively conservative in order to avoid costly fumbles and interceptions. Either way, inclement weather in football usually portends defensive battles and low scores.
Sub-freezing temperatures generally restrain deep passing attacks, giving an advantage to football teams with superior running games or solid short-passing schemes. For baseball considerations, warm air is less dense, or thinner, than cold air. A would-be 400 ft shot at 75 degrees would carry 408 ft at 95 degrees.
Along with temperature, humidity has to be considered when factoring meteorological elements. An NFL team like the Miami Dolphins is conditioned to a hot and humid environment which is most extreme in the first month of the season. Take them out of their natural climate and their performance suffers, as shown by a large disparity in their September home record vs. December road games. Overall, teams from the South have the advantage when hosting a opponent not used to hot, humid conditions, while cold-weather squads from the North gain the edge when hosting warm-weather teams in chilly December weather.
Humidity can also affect a baseball game. According to Professor Robert Adair, the dean of baseball physicists, a baseball in a humid environment is actually heavier and less elastic than a dry ball, and, therefore, cannot be hit as far.
Wind is perhaps the most overlooked weather factor in sports handicapping. The importance of football special teams are amplified in bad weather, especially in windy conditions, as teams with superior kicking games have a distinct edge over an inferior kicking team. Meanwhile, teams that rely on passing games can be greatly affected by blustery conditions, especially if the winds are blowing across the field. In a game where there are strong winds blowing parallel to the direction of the field, one team will always have the wind at their backs, allowing them to pass the ball more easily; however, if the wind is blowing strongly across the field, this can hamper both teams’ passing attack for the entire game.
In regards to baseball, air moving along in the same direction the ball is flying pushes back less on the ball, allowing it to travel farther. In fact, the wind is very often the single most important thing to consider about the weather when betting baseball totals. A 400 ft shot in calm conditions would turn into a 445 ft blast with a 15 mph wind directed out to center field.
Yet another factor that has to be weighed when handicapping sports is altitude. At stadiums and arenas one mile or more above sea level, the air is considerably thinner than those below 1000 feet in elevation. With the oxygen level greatly reduced at higher elevations, the heart and breathing rates increase to compensate. This is experienced as shortness of breath and early fatigue. It takes about 10 days for the body to completely acclimate to altitude, so low-altitude teams making road trips to the Rocky Mountains simply don’t have enough time to fully adjust. They often struggle, especially late in a hard-fought contest.
As in poor-weather games, special teams play can become a more decisive factor in high-altitude football contests as well. Punts and placekicks travel longer distances due to decreased air resistance. The team with the more accurate and consistent kicking game will fare considerably better as they will be more likely to convert their increased kicking range into good field position and points.
Air under low pressure is less dense, or thinner, than air under high pressure. This is the main reason long balls carry farther in Denver - the atmospheric pressure at that altitude (5,300 ft) is always about 15% less than sea level pressures. A hit that would have flown 400 ft at sea level would carry to 430 ft in the thin air of Coors Stadium. This permanent effect of Denver’s high altitude is duly noted by the oddsmakers, however, resulting in totals typically in the 12-14 range, reducing the opportunity to simply bet OVERS and win most of the time. The day-to-day pressure changes of the atmosphere, however, are not considered by the oddsmakers, but these daily pressure differences at stadiums caused by the meanderings of the high and low pressures depicted on weather charts are very small. On a low pressure day the pressure is only one or two per cent lower than on a normal day, so a 400 ft shot would only carry a whopping 402 ft! Obviously this effect is too small to worry about in baseball, especially since there are other atmospheric factors that actually make a big difference.
PRO INFO SPORTS considers all of the NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball games played in the Rocky Mountains region “altitude games”, from El Paso, Texas (4,000 ft) to Laramie, Wyoming (7,100 ft). In the NFL and MLB, only Denver qualifies, while the NBA has 2 high-altitude sites in Denver and Salt Lake City (4,330 ft).
Ultimately, a decided competitive advantage can be gained by a team in its element playing an opponent out of its element, whether it is temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind, or altitude.
These weather principles are, of course, generalities and all factors must be considered when analyzing sports investment opportunities, but the monitoring and scrutinizing of these conditions and circumstances are examples of how PRO INFO SPORTS gains a significant sports handicapping advantage and uses the information to help determine the strength of certain selections according to our Money Management strategy.
Jerry Fox is the founder of and a professional sports handicapper with ProInfoSports.com. Along with offering his premium expert sports picks and sports handicapping systems, he provides free sports picks, sports handicapping systems, and free sports handicapping tips.
NFL Preseason Football Handicapping Tips Part 3
By Jerry Fox
NFL Preseason Football Handicapping Tips Part 3
During the NFL preseason, unique conditions are in place; therefore, successful sports handicapping and investing requires different strategies than those used during any other time of the pro football season. Previously, weve revealed some preseason football handicapping tips involving coaching and team motivation. This week, we are going to look at QB ROTATIONS.
One of our favorite NFL Preseason Handicapping strategies is to:
Play AGAINST a team with rookie QBs that will see significant playing time, such as the 2nd half of a game, especially in Week 1.
These young QBs are often late round picks and undrafted free agents, not the cream of the quarterbacking crop. Their unfamiliarity with the offensive scheme and speed of NFL defenders often give them trouble. Even great college QBs can get “schooled” in the preseason. We took advantage of such an opportunity with USC legend Matt Leinart. He was making his NFL debut with Arizona and facing the Patriots, who were favored by 3 points. Its rare that well play a team favored by more than a FG during the NFL preseason; however, this was too good to pass up, as we noted in our GAMEDAY INVESTMENT e-LERT write-up:
“While Leinart may indeed have a long and productive career in the league, he figures to be in way over his head here. Hes had little to practice with Arizona and has never even attended an NFL game. Making a rookie debut on the road against the Patriots, who love to confuse opposing QBs with various schemes and blitzes even in the preseason, is not a recipe for success. New Englands defenders will be very motivated to give Leinart a rude welcome to professional football.”
This one got ugly early, as the Patriots pasted the Cardinals, 30-3, as we beat the spread by more than 3 TDs.
A couple more preseason handicapping tips are to:
Play ON a team with experienced back-up QBs that have prior experience with the team and will see significant playing time, such as the 2nd half of a game. - This will happen most frequently early in the preseason, especially Week 1. Due to their familiarity with the offensive scheme and speed of NFL defenders, these veteran QBs are much less likely to make critical mistakes.
Play ON a team with a battle between 2 good, motivated QBs for the starting position, especially if the 1st-string offense will see extended playing time in order to have playing time with both QBs. - This can create a huge mismatch, where the 2nd QB and 1st-string offense is going up against an opponents backups.
The QB rotation was certainly a key factor in a PRO INFO SPORTS NFL GAMEDAY INVESTMENT e-LERT STAR SELECTION in which we took an underdog Panthers team over Jacksonville, noting:
“An inspired Minter and company will look to slow down the Jaguars QB who hit 4 TD passes of 50+ yards last week. While David Garrard was impressive, throwing two of the long TD passes, it was in the second half against tired Miami backups. Garrard will get a much tougher test Saturday night against the Panthers, whose first-team defense held Buffalo without a first down in four series last week. Garrard will face the first stringers because Leftwich will only play briefly due to a sore arm. It will also mean an earlier appearance for Jacksonvilles #3 QB, as well.”
With a poor QB rotation against a stout defense, its no wonder the Jaguars could manage only 10 points and lost by a TD to the Panthers for another PRO INFO SPORTS NFLX winning STAR SELECTION.
Next time, In Part 4 of PRO INFO SPORTS NFL Preseason Football Handicapping Tips, we’ll next take a look at GAMEPLANS.
Jerry Fox is the founder of and a professional sports handicapper with ProInfoSports.com. Along with offering his premium expert sports picks and sports handicapping systems, he provides free sports picks, sports handicapping systems, and free sports handicapping tips.
Your Source For Extreme Sports
The Relation Between Soccer And Brazil
By John Salmon
There are many types of sports games being played across the world. Some of these games are more popular than others. The most popular games like basketball, baseball, football and soccer have made their way into games other countries. Football is a game for example which is very important in Brazil. Brazil football is more than just a game, it is a national past time.
In Brazil, the sport should be considered by some to a part of their heritage. Many young boys begin to learn the basics of the game at a very young age. Not to mention that most see every day in their family and in the streets of Brazil.
You will see that for many people in Brazil football is a game that did not need a lot of expensive equipment to play. All it takes is a place to play the game, people who like to play soccer and a soccer ball. Compared to other sports such as football or baseball, which requires some expensive equipment. This is a game that can be played on many beaches in Brazil, streets and even on playgrounds where there are more games of football being played.
Brazil football is also a way of life for many young boys of Brazil. They play this game in the hope that they will one day become great football players like Pele, Zico, Ronaldo and many others. As these boys so too mature their skills, passion and vitality of the game. The determination and discipline these world famous football players showed Brazil is one reason why soccer is very popular in Brazilian society. This determination has to show all the boys who grow up they can do.
Of course, many young players also dream of becoming a world-class football players because of money that we can get this game Now when you watch a football match Brazil, which is played by children in the streets, you can see many traits that propelled famous football players like Pele “on the international scene. These boys play for the sake of energy, passion and a dream one day to be the best.
There is another reason why Brazil football thrives in the streets of Brazil. The Brazilian international football players have decided in their own way to present the youth of Brazil football. They plant seeds it is possible for them too. This is considered by integrating that football has in young people’s lives. Any child who learns to play Brazil soccer has the opportunity to lead a better life than many can imagine.
So the next time you watch a football match in Brazil on the faces of these young players. You will see another type of face, which takes a passion and love for the game to a whole new level. Somewhere in the game that you might want to see another international football participant as Ronaldo or Zico. It is from these humble beginnings that Brazil soccer shows just how good they are in football.
Who would have ever though the Brazil football can be played with any type of football, even with socks or soda lids can triumph in the world of football. It just goes to show that life can be passionate if you choose to be. It just takes a little determination and a whole lot of work.
Read about soccer moves and soccer positions at The Soccer Coach website.
Friday, July 25th, 2008 at 5:35 pm and is filed under sports. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
